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For the past five years, dressing-room banter among the Premier League stars has focused on how to jump on the bandwagon of rising house prices and emulate the fortune amassed by shrewd soccer veteran Robbie Fowler from unglamorous investments which include a street of cheap terrace houses in Oldham. But now the talk is of tumbling values, collapsing development firms, the fallout of the Icelandic banking system and failed deals.
The Mail examines Wayne Rooney's investment in developments in Aldgate and Whitechapel, via the Formation Group, which specialises in advising wealthy sports and showbiz stars what to do with their copious cash. Building work is being funded by Iceland's Heritable Bank. The Aldgate building (above Aldgate East tube) is apparently under threat. Other footballers have invested in property in the US and Dubai, as well as a range of property for investment and personal use closer to home. But it's not the footballers who are taking the property crash to heart the most. How about former super-middle weight world champion Glenn Catley, who doesn't sound too impressed with financial advice from well-known property investor Jonathan Power.
I'd like to rip Power's head off and spit in the hole.
Technorati Tags: celebrity, London, property, real estate |
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It might not get the coverage the Halifax index got a few days ago (there are only so many ways of saying the same thing) but the Nationwide index closes the year nasty. A 15.9% drop on the year is the biggest since Nationwide began keeping records, and it follows a December drop of 2.5% (after a modest 0.4% drop in November had us all wondering whether things were leveling out).
Technorati Tags: property, real estate |
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According to the Halifax, the country's largest mortgage lender who closely monitors house ownership, 345,000 more British people left London than moved to the capital between 1998 and 2007.
However, 1.8m immigrants arrived in the Capital over the same period... resulting in the current situation in which - apparently - one in three London workers comes from overseas. The flight of indigenous Londoners is blamed on high property prices... if you want to own it, you need to leave London. But if you want to rent it - and don't mind being crammed into a small conversion with half a dozen other immigrants - London's great. Note that this research ends in 2007. It will be interesting to see whether rising unemployment sends eastern Europeans back home, unemployed Brits back to London.
Technorati Tags: London, property, real estate |
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While we were away, a fascinating piece in the Telegraph about seven London lodges, all in the Royal Parks, which have been spruced up and are being made available to rent. They're not cheap, of course, but the perks, combined with the originality of the addresses, are impressive... and include Royal Parks gardeners tending your plot, detached living and parking in central London and acres of parkland on the doorstep. At the bargain cosy end of things, try West Lodge in Hyde Park: a double bedroom, off-street parking and garden near Knightsbridge and South Kensington, for £550 a week.
Technorati Tags: London, property, real estate |
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First off... a quick refresher. Here's what they were saying last year.
It's been that kind of a year... a year that made Capital Economics look bullish, and left the Rat and Mouse with egg on its whiskers. 2009's set of predictions look very different. It's a clean sweep for negative numbers. There are some notable names missing altogether (Halifax isn't playing, because it doesn't feel it's appropriate to publish independent research when the company's on the verge of losing its independence; Nationwide won't play because of a fear of current volatility; the Council of Mortgage Lenders because it's all too depressing; the National Association of Estate Agents because it has too much sense.) Some things never change, however. Notice, at the top... the estate agents; at the bottom... Capital Economics. Here goes:
Hamptons ↓5%
KFH ↓5%
Assetz ↓5%
Winkworth ↓5% to ↓10%
Hometrack ↓10%
RICS ↓10%
The Rat and Mouse ↓10%
Legal & General ↓10% to ↓15%
Barclays ↓10% to ↓15%
Propertyfinder ↓12%
Knight Frank ↓15%
Capital Economics ↓20%
Halifax NO BETS
Nationwide NO BETS
Council of Mortgage Lenders NO BETS
National Association of Estate Agents NO BETS
There are specific and special problems with making predictions for 2009. For instance, none of us really knows where house prices are right now. Transaction levels are low enough to be statistically unreliable. According to Halifax - the place we traditionally look at this time of year - prices are currently down 18% from their summer 2007 peak. The general economic crisis provides a further layer of uncertainty. Arguably more important than interest rates or the willingness/ability of the lenders to lend, is employment. If 2009's job-losses turn into the catastrophe some predict, they'll count out any kind of house price recovery, and may well add impetus to a downward spiral. Nor will the market act as a whole. New builds are likely to suffer, as developers decide they'd prefer a kicking to a fatal lack of cash. Internationally desirable locations and properties, on the other hand, could profit from a weak pound.
In other words, it will be complicated.
Happy New Year to you. The Rat and Mouse will be back on Monday.
Technorati Tags: property, real estate |
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Accurate-ish, because based on completions. Lagging reality, because they represent deals often done six or eight weeks earlier. Whatever, the Land Registry November report is showing an annual decline in prices of 12.2%, which is about what most people were expecting. It's the 15th consecutive monthly drop. More here.
Technorati Tags: property, real estate |
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Of course, we've still our 2009 predictions post to come... we'll do that nearer New Year's Eve. But right now... the 2008 facts are coming in thick-and-fast. Like... London's been hit hardest by the house price downturn. A Hometrack survey shows London's down 10.1% on the year, compared with an 8.7% national average. Those numbers sound conservative to me. We'll know something like the truth after the Government reveals its December completions figures in a month or two. Meanwhile, Globrix claim that - in the UK's most stagnant market, Rochdale's - one in four homes remain on the market after 12 months. Elsewhere - and this is slightly counter-intuitive given the dramatic recent cuts in interest rates - homeowners paid off a record £5.7b of mortgage debt in the third quarter of 2008. Presumably, this is about falling house prices and tricky loan-to-value demands from the lenders. Still... kind of mature, isn't it? More facts and figures as the year draws to an end. And hold on - of course - for those all-important 2009 predictions.
Technorati Tags: London, property, real estate |
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That's it from the Rat and Mouse until Monday December 29... unless, of course, something extraordinary happens... like a giant freeze-up in credit, or a major investment bank collapsing, or the property market entering free-fall. But what are the chances of something like that happening?
In the meantime, I'd like to wish you all a very Happy Christmas and Happy Holidays. I don't say if often enough, but I appreciate you visiting. In the course of the year, we've watched Rat and Mouse traffic break through the 200,000 pages a month mark... not a giant deal to News International, perhaps, but something of an achievement for a two-man band. I've enjoyed your comments and (most of) your emails. Please keep them coming in 2009, and don't be shy about suggesting things you'd like to read or see on the page.
Finally, a big thanks to our sponsor, Primelocation.com, who provide the search box above and to the right. Use it... it's good. And visit the site. Read all their great stuff too.
[photo by Caro's Lines]
Technorati Tags: property, real estate, theRatandMouse |
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According to this, asking prices are rising at Maple Quays, in SE16... just a short swim but a world away in property prices from all the banking action. The developers (Barratt) claim sales have been so good they've been able to add a little premium.
Technorati Tags: London, property, real estate |
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That's according to a survey by uSwitch. And it's alarming because a repayment "holiday" only increases the debt (the interest doesn't go on vacation), and puts the problem temporarily on hold. Our current economic woes, however, look anything like short-lived. More here.
Technorati Tags: property, real estate |
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Here's a strange one. The Addymans say they've a £226,000 loan in place with Natwest, that they're completely up-to-date on their payments, their payment history is impeccable, and yet they've received a letter from their lender telling them that the loan is to be withdrawn and if they can't pay back the £226,000 in full within a week, they'll begin repossession proceedings. Why? The bank apparently won't tell them. Nor will it enter into any dialogue about the case whatsoever:
The letter concluded: 'We assure you that we have only reached this decision after careful consideration. However our decision is final and we are not prepared to enter into any discussion in relation to it.'
It all sounds a little Orwellian. What's going on?
Technorati Tags: property, real estate |
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